The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has intensified, with rising armed resistance and a worsening humanitarian situation. Key developments highlight significant military losses, increasing resistance efforts, a growing humanitarian crisis, and a mixed international response.
Military Losses
Myanmar’s military has faced notable setbacks in recent months:
• Rakhine State: In December, the military lost control of the Western Regional Command, five towns, and 21 battalions.
• Kachin State: Losses included the military border guard force and control of several towns.
• These setbacks have strategic implications, particularly for China, as they jeopardize its access to rare earth minerals and the strategic port of Kyaukphyu.
Resistance Efforts
Armed resistance by ethnic groups and other factions has intensified:
• Operation 1027: The Three Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), launched a major offensive in June 2024.
• Increased Resistance: Both EAOs and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) have escalated their military campaigns, successfully capturing several towns. However, despite their gains, these actions have yet to significantly disrupt the military’s broader operations.
Humanitarian Crisis
The civil war has severely impacted civilians, with dire warnings from international organizations:
• Risk of Famine: The United Nations has flagged Rakhine State as being at high risk of famine due to ongoing conflict and displacement.
• Human Rights Violations: Civilians have faced widespread violence, including targeted attacks, abductions, and sexual violence.
• Surveillance and Repression: The military junta has intensified digital surveillance, targeting activists, human rights defenders, and members of the opposition.
International Response
The global community has responded with a combination of sanctions and diplomatic protests:
• Sanctions: Canada, the European Union, and the United Kingdom have imposed sanctions on entities supplying the military junta with equipment used in the conflict.
• China’s Reaction: China has expressed concerns after an attack on its consulate in Mandalay, lodging a formal protest with Myanmar authorities.
As the conflict escalates, the humanitarian crisis deepens, leaving millions vulnerable. The international community continues to grapple with how to address the growing instability in Myanmar while supporting affected civilians.